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Super Bowl - Super Props
Your guide to best, worst and dumbest things you can actually bet on during "the big game"
I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but it’s legal to bet on sports online in a lot of places. It’s easy to miss this considering Drew Brees is only awkwardly talking about betting during every single commercial break on every single TV show these days.
And of course, the Super Bowl is the uh…the Super Bowl of online betting. You can bet on just about anything.
So here’s your guide to things you can
waste win money on.
At DraftKings you can bet on whether either either kicker pulls a Cody Parkey and hits an upright. Yes is +400, No is -550.
You can bet on the coin toss, both heads and tails are -105. (Don’t bet on the coin toss.)
You can bet on which team will win the coin toss, both the Rams and Bengals are -105. (Don’t bet on the coin toss.)
You can bet on the Gatorade color that gets dumped on the winning coach. Clear is the favorite “color” at +250, no Gatorade at all is +650. (Don’t bet on the Gatorade color unless you know the equipment guys on both teams.)
You can bet on whether the jersey number of the first touchdown scorer will be over or under 23.5. There are a lot of players likely to score a TD with low numbers: Joe Burrow (9), Ja’Marr Chase (1), Cam Akers (23), Odell Beckham Jr. (3), Matthew Stafford (9), Cooper Kupp (10), Van Jefferson (12). Under is -140, Over is +110, and the under seems like a nice buy.
DraftKings will let you bet on whether or not there will be an “Octopus” in the game. No, Red Wings fans aren’t going to wander into SoFi and wait for a hat trick. In football, apparently, an octopus is when the same player scores a touchdown and the subsequent two-point conversion. Thereby scoring eight (hence, octopus) points in the possession. It’s only happened 169 times in the 28 seasons since the two-point conversion became a thing in the NFL. That’s reflected in the payout. Yes is +1400. No is -2500. I’d rather bet on this unlikely event than on the coin toss.
If you think it’s going to be a shootout, DraftKings is offering +450 on both teams scoring 25 or more points and Burrow and Stafford each throwing for 250 yards. Sounds pretty tempting. So far in the six playoff games they’ve played this year, Burrow has done that once (v. the Chiefs) and Stafford twice (v. the Bucs and the Niners). That pays +450.
You can get a whopping +5500 for Cam Akers to score the first touchdown and Joe Mixon to score the second. That’s way too specific for my taste.
And, +4500 if Akers scores the first two TDs. Cam’s averaging 2.8 yards a carry in the playoffs and hasn’t scored a touchdown. So, no.
How about both teams score 20 points or more, Cooper Kupp has at least 100 receiving yards and a touchdown and Ja’Marr Chase has 80 yards receiving? That seems pretty possible. It pays +400.
Kupp scoring the first two TDs of the game is +2800.
Either Stafford or Burrow throwing a 50+ yard TD pass is +200. I like that one.
Bengals kicker Evan McPherson to kick a 50+ field goal is +140. He’s made all three that he’s attempted in the playoffs so far.
If you think both Stafford and Burrow can pass for at least one TD and run for one TD each that’s +6000.
Odell Beckham to gain over 99.5 yards receiving is +360. He’s only done that once in the 17 games he’s played this year (Browns and Rams) and that just happened in the NFC Championship game when he had 113 against the Niners.
Odell to score the game’s first two TDs is +8000. If you want to bet that, just hand me the money and I’ll hold it for you. Wink, wink.
There are, of course, the cross-sport props.
You can bet on whether Steph Curry will have a higher total of points+assists+rebounds in his game on Saturday against the Lakers or Joe Burrow’s longest completion will be the bigger number. Curry’s currently averaging 25.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.4 assists. That’s 32.4. He’s played the Lakers once this year and had a triple double with 21 points, 10 rebound and 10 assists (41). Burrow’s longest completions in the three playoff games so far were 29 yards v. the Raiders, 57 v. the Titans and 44 v. the Chiefs. Both Burrow and Curry are -110.
Trae Young and the Hawks play Boston on Sunday, and you can bet whether Trae will make more threes than the Bengals score touchdowns in the Super Bowl. On the season, Trae averages 2.9 made threes per game, and he’s made just two threes in 15 attempts against Boston this year in two games. The Bengals have scored just five touchdowns total in their three playoff games so far. Trae is -115 and the Bengals are -105.
You can also bet on whether Trae will have more points against the Celtics than the Rams will score in the Super Bowl. Trae is averaging 27.8 points per game, but 19.5 against the Celtics this year. The Rams are averaging 28 points per game in the playoffs. Trae and the Rams both pay -110.
And you can bet which will be more. Total points combined by Jaylon Brown, Jayson Tatum and Trae Young in their game or Ja’Marr Chase’s total receiving yards. For the season the three NBA players average 77.2 points combined and Ja’Marr is averaging 93 yards in the playoffs. Ja’Marr is -125, the NBA guys are +105. I like the hoopers in that one. Yes, hoopers. It’s a thing.
Over at FanDuel, both teams scoring a touchdown on their first drive is +1040 for yes, -2500 for no. There’s a reason for that.
If you like QB sneaks, shortest TD run pays +116 if it’s over 1.5 yards and -142 if it’s under.
Any player on either team to score two or more TDs is -270 for yes, and +190 for no. So clearly, it happens a lot.
Fat man touchdowns (any o-lineman scoring a TD) pay +1600. You have to bet that.
You can bet on either team scoring on their first offensive play. Yes pays +3000, no -20000. Yes, 20,000. If you want to root against fun and make almost no money while being right, bet against a first play TD.
Will the first offensive play result in a first down? Yes is +300, no is -400. I like that one as a yes.
First offensive play (excluding an accepted penalty) for the Rams is a pass +132, a run -162. First offensive play (excluding an accepted penalty) for the Bengals is a pass -110, a run -110. I’m taking the Rams pass. McVay had to try to win a Super Bowl with Jared Goff crapping down his leg once, you know he wants to let Stafford sling it in this one.
Final play of the game QB kneel? Yes: -210, No: +168.
Will there be a two point conversion attempt? Yes -105, No -115.
Will there be a two successful two point conversion? Yes +235, No -310. I really like yes. I’m a moron.
What will happen first for the Rams? Punt -130, Score points +106.
What will happen first for the Bengals? Punt -144, Score points +118.
Will there be a successful fourth down conversion in the game? Yes -340, No +260.
First scoring play in the game? Touchdown -168, Field Goal +128, Safety +5500. Oh, come on, put a buck on a safety. Henry Waechter would be so proud. There have been nine safeties in Super Bowl history in the first 55 games. And three Super Bowls had safeties as the first score (three more than I thought.) Most recently Seattke got one on Peyton Manning in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Will there be a score on the game’s final play? (If you get to overtime you are likely golden here.) Yes: +1040 No: -2500
Will there be an offensive TD scored on a fourth down? Yes: +310 No: -420
Will there be a Scoragami in the Super Bowl? (A Scoragami is a score that has never happened before.) Yes: +1200 No: -3500
Will there be a fumble lost in the first half? (Is it raining and is Rex Grossman playing?) Yes: +132, No: -162
Will there be a fumble lost in the second half? Yes: +128, No: -158
Here’s a weird one that I learned about from Jimmy Traina’s podcast and I like it and agree with his proposed strategy. Will the Rams use all six timeouts in regulation? Yes: +270 No: -355. Will the Bengals use all six timeouts in regulation? Yes: +360 No: -500. Bet yes on both. Cover yourself both ways. And, it’s a shame that Matt Nagy will never coach a Super Bowl team because this would be easy money.
And, looking ahead, the Bears are +7500 to win the Super Bowl next year. Talk about a sure thing. Have you heard Matt Eberflus explain his HITS philosophy? You know what? Never mind.
OK. So that’s a lot. Let’s sum up. Props are meant to mostly be fun, so if we lose any of these we just agree to tear up the tickets and flush them in our actual toilets, because that’s a totally normal thing to do.
First touchdown scorer jersey number under 23.5 -110.
Octopus in the game? Yes +1400
Both teams score 20+ points, Cooper Kupp 100 + receiving yards and 1+ TD and Ja’Marr Chase 80+ yards receiving +400
Stafford or Burrow throw 50+ yard TD pass +200
McPherson 50+ yard made field goal +140
Stafford and Burrow each 1+ TD rushing and passing, +6000 (It’s completely unlikely, but I’m a sucker.)
Fat man touchdown +1600
First offensive play first down +300
First Rams offensive play is a pass +132
First score safety +5500 (Why not?)
Two point conversion attempt? Yes -105 and Successful two point conversion? Yes +235 (No reason not to bet both two point conversion props if you’re betting on a successful one.)
Offensive TD on a fourth down? Yes +310
Rams use all six timeouts in regulation: +270 and Bengals use all six timeouts in regulation: +360
So there you have it. A fun way to piss away some money. I should have learned my lesson. I bet on all kinds of offensive props the last time the Rams were in the Super Bowl and went down in flames when there was one TD in the whole damned thing.
As for the game itself? I think the Bengals fun ends when their awful offensive line tries to block Aaron Donald and Von Miller. I’m taking the Rams -4.
The final football Remember This Crap for a while was a fun one. We looked back at every Bears coaching search from 1982 when they hired Mike Ditka until the one when we got stuck with Matt Nagy and we broke down all of the candidates they interviewed, tried to interview or, in one particularly ridiculous instance, they got permission to interview two future Super Bowl winning coaches and didn’t bother to interview either one. It’s frustrating and fun.