Discover more from Pointless Exercise
Sports books love to take our money during the Super Bowl
And honestly, I somehow have a helluva time giving it to them
Apparently before the biggest football moment of the year, the Bears trading the first overall pick in the draft, the league is going to play one more game. The Super Bowl1 is this Sunday and I’m not sure if you are aware of this. Not only can you watch it, you can bet on it!
How is that possible, you ask? The DraftKings Sports Book sticking superfluously out of Wrigley Field like an Antonio Alfonseca extra digit isn’t even open yet. How can we bet?
But what are going to bet on? Do you bet Eagles -1.5 and call it a night?
There’s all kinds of fun, weird props you can bet on.
Let’s take some time to pick out some that are worth our time and our hard earned cash.
Right now on the Draft Kings app you can get a “Super Boost” where at least one of the teams to score at least 30 points is boosted from -140 to +100 (there’s a new one every day). You can only put a maximum of $10 bucks on it if you use the boost, but hey that’s like doubling your money for free, right?
Well, last year neither team scored more than 23 points, and we’re just three years removed from the dullest Super Bowl of all-time, the Pats’ 13-3 win over the Rams.
The Eagles have scored 38 and 31 points in their two playoff wins so far and scored 30 or more eight times, though not against the gawdawful Bears’ defense.
The Chiefs have not scored 30 points yet in the playoffs (27 and 23) and also scored 30 or more eight times during the regular season.
This seems like a sucker bet to me. But too late, I already bet it.
Patrick Mahomes (+125) and Jalen Hurts (+125) are the prohibitive favorites for Super Bowl MVP. If you think the winner’s going to score 30 or more, then one of the QBs is almost certainly going to be MVP. Hell, Peyton Manning was the MVP of Super Bowl 41 even though he threw for a whopping 247 yards and a pick. Dominick Rhodes rushed for 113 and a TD and should have won the award, but…Peyton. You think he was mad that the AFC lost a flag football game to Eli, imagine if he had zero Super Bowl MVPs to Eli’s two?
Then there are the “Super Bowl Specials.”
Stuff like any offensive lineman to catch a fat guy TD pass (+3500), any QB to have a reception (+1200), any non QB to throw a TD pass (+2200), or any QB to catch a TD pass (+3000).
These are all sucker bets that seem possible because the last time the Eagles were in the Super Bowl all this shit happened. Hell, the last three happened on one play! It was a play that Dowell Loggains created for the always innovative Bears, when he drew it up for Mitch against the Vikings the year before.
They are terrible bets. But they are all fun. I might feel the need to at least waste some money on a non QB to throw a TD pass. Will Julian Edelman doing it in a Verizon commercial count?
Pointless Exercise is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support this work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
You can bet on Super Bowl records to be broken.
Most passing TDs (over 6.5) is +4000.
Most passing yards (over 505.5) is +3500.
Most reception yards (over 215.5) is +1600. (Who has that record? Is it still Kenny Margerum?)
Most rushing yards (over 204.5) is +2500.
Come on, you might as well just set your money on fire instead. I can’t imagine any of these are in danger. Then again, who saw Timmy Smith coming in 1988?
The game props include:
First team to reach the red zone - Chiefs +100, Eagles -120
First team to get a first down - Chiefs -110, Eagles -110
First TD type - passing -155, rushing +160, other +900
I like how “other” seems so exotic. It’s really only three possibilities. Turnover recovered/returned for a TD or a kick or punt return. When has that ever paid off?
Oh, yeah. That was fun. That’s all I choose to remember from that game now. Not the Dominic Rhodes thing, not Rex’s tiny little doll hands dropping the ball in the rain over and over and over. Not Muhsin Muhammad refusing to try to tackle Kelvin Hayden after Rex threw a pick to him. Just the kickoff return for the now, incredibly, two-time Hall of Fame snub.
Hey, it took Ryne Sandberg three ballots to go into the Baseball Hall of Fame. This stuff is political and stupid.
Anyway, where were we?
Total numbers of offensive players to score? Chiefs over 3.5 is -115, under 3.5 is -105, Eagles over 3.5 -135, under 3.5 +115.
Will the last play of the game be a kneel down? Yes -200, No +155
Did you know the Joe Pisarchik “Miracle at the Meadowlands” fumble returned by Herm Edwards happened in part because in 1978 the QB could still not just take a knee to keep the clock running? Defensive players were free to nail you if you tried it because you weren’t down until touched. So that explains why the Giants (coached by Sean McVay’s grandfather at the time) were handing the ball off while trying to run out the clock. But still, Pisarcik had to piss down his leg to make it happen.
Longest drive (either team) is over 82.5 -110, under 82.5 -110.
Chiefs to convert fourth down in their own territory? Yes +400, No -550
Eagles to convert fourth down in their own territory? Yes +300, No -400
Yes is tasty in both cases. Which should probably tell us something.
More in the game?
Punts -145 or Touchdowns +110
Field goals made -175 or Turnovers +130
Total points scored -135 or longest field goal made +115
What will happen first?
Any turnover -120 or a rushing touchdown -105
Any touchdown -115 or any sack -105
A punt -130 or a score +110
Will there be a two point conversion attempt? Yes +120 No -145
That’s one of my favorite bets every year.
Will there be a score on the last play of the game? Yes +900 or No -2500
What kind of asshole bets -2500 on that?
Will there be an offensive touchdown scored on a fourth down?
Yes +275 or No -360
There are these novelty props that people actually bet on.
Coin toss - Heads +100 or Tails +100
Chiefs to win coin toss and win game - Yes +300 No -400
Eagles to win coin toss and win game - Yes +250 No -330
Team to win the coin toss - Eagles +100 or Chiefs +100
Only dumb people bet on this. And I will now admit I always bet on tails. It’s a good omen for the rest of the game. You win that and you’re on a roll right away. Or something.
You can bet on the position of the MVP. QB is, as you would guess terrible odds at -650. But how about this? You get the kicker, punter and long snapper for +15000. Like you wouldn’t have put a buck on a chance to get Adam Viniateri, Robbie Gould, Hunter Smith, Brad Maynard, Luke Rhodes or Pat Mannelly and win $150 if any of them were Super Bowl MVP?
I think Mannelly was robbed, personally.
How about jersey number of the first touchdown scorer over 11.5 is +105 and under 11.5 is -130 or jersey number of the last touchdown scorer with over 11.5 at +105 and under 11.5 at -130?
I feel like AJ Brown is specifically being targeted here or, I guess, maybe Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Both wear 11. They are the flex point of the whole bet!
Will there be a Scorigami? Yes +2000, No -10000.
Team to make first coach’s challenge - Chiefs -120, Eagles +100
Will first challenge be successful? - Yes -135, No +110
If you think Andy Reid’s going to make the first challenge, bet no on if it will win, instead.
Will there be an octopus? Yes +1400, No -5000
What’s an octopus? That’s when the same player scores a touchdown and his team goes for two and he scores the subsequent two point conversion. You bet your ass I’m betting this. I did it last year and…no. But it’s due!
Will a field goal or extra point hit an upright or crossbar?
Ahh, the Cody Parkey. Yes +450, No -650.
I’m going to bet it and it’s going to happen to Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Busker, just so Matt Nagy can do this again:
We talked about the boost of any team to score 30 or more from -140 to +100.
How about any team to score 40 or more? It’s +425 for yes, -650 for no.
Each team to score at least one touchdown and one field goal is Yes -180, No +140
Will the game be tied again after 0-0 is -135 and No +110
Team to win and both teams score 20 or more points is:
Chiefs - Yes +250, No -330
Eagles - Yes +230, No -300
Team to win and both teams score 30 or more points is
Chiefs - Yes +900, No -2000
Eagles - Yes +900, No -2000
Largest lead - over 14.5 is -105, under 14.5 is -125
Will there be a defensive or special teams score? Yes +285, No -425
Will there be a successful two-point conversion? Yes +230, No -300
Team to score more points in second half/overtime or first half?
Chiefs - second half/OT -135, first half +110
Eagles - second half/OT -135, first half +110
This tracks. Super Bowls often start slow. Devin Hester excluded.
Pick six? Yes +600, No -1000
These are just a few of the hundreds (literally) of props you can bet on at DraftKings.
So what about stuff like length of the national anthem or Rihanna’s first song? For those, you need to use an off-shore site like Bovada. American-based sports books don’t take bets on stuff that’s pre-determined. I hate to break it to you gang, the national anthem is pre-recorded and Rihanna does a rehearsal the day before. People already know this stuff.
Alright, so what am I betting you ask? Well, sadly, I’ll likely add to this list. But as of today, two days before the big game, I plan to bet on:
Coin toss - tails (+100)
Eagles -1.5 points (-110)
Scorigami? Yes (+2000)
Is it likely? No! That’s the beauty of Scorigami, but why not throw a few bucks on it?
One team to score 30+ points - yes (+100) I already bet it.
Non QB to throw a touchdown pass - yes (+2200) It’s a dumb bet, but I love it.
First TD pass to be “other” (+900)
And I’m tripling down by also betting defense/special teams score (+285) and pick six (+600). I guess I’m not really tripling down because these two don’t have to happen as the first score. But if the first score is a pick six, I’m rich!
I also have somewhat intertwined conversion bets.
Two point conversion attempt? yes (+275)
Octopus? yes (+1400)
Successful two point conversion yes (+230)
Will there be an offensive touchdown a fourth down? yes +100
This feels like something Mahomes does every week. It only feels like it. Still, why not?
Will the first replay challenge be successful? No +110
And, will a field goal or extra point hit the crossbar or an upright (or both!) yes +600
Now, the experts will tell you that Super Bowl props are created to get rubes to bet over and yes and that the sharp players overwhelmingly bet under and no.
I’m a rube and these bets are fun and it’s the Super Bowl and it’s the last one for a decade that Justin Fields and the Bears aren’t going to be in, so I’m going down in a blaze of glory.
And then, finally, after the game you can bet on this at DraftKings. Hell, you can do it now if you’re so inclined.
For which NFL team will Aaron Rodgers take his next regular season snap? (Has to be in 2023, so if he gets hurt during his four days blacking out in a closet and misses the season the bet is void.)
Commanders, Titans, Niners and Patriots are all +2000
Panthers and Colts are both +2500
How about the Raiders leading at -230? Could the Vegas boys know something or is it just smart business to have at least one team who isn’t the Packers with better odds to gin up some action? Most likely, that.
Are we allowed to use the real name on Substack or do we have to call it the Big Game?
You know, since DraftKings freely uses Super Bowl in their ads and they are a sponsor of the Pointless Exercise podcast, I think we’re safe.