The Cubs are going after a really good player
Never mind that they are probably have no desire to keep him
Once Juan Soto signed with the Mets the talk of the winter meetings was about how could the teams who missed out on that generational talent pivot to somebody else. The Cubs, who didn’t even bother to offer Soto a contract were not part of those early ponderings. Well, they were, but it was about what team would they just give Cody Bellinger away to.
Then, weird things started to leak out. Like the fact that the Cubs had checked in with Seiya Suzuki to see if he’d be open to weighing his no-trade clause. God forbid they ask Ian Happ to ever do that. Sure, trade away the good one, but don’t bother Captain Hairplugs.
And then suddenly there was a rumor that the Astros were talking to the Cubs about their very good right fielder, Kyle Tucker.
Tucker’s not a good hitter, he’s a great one. His OPS-pluses for his full seasons in the big leagues are 111, 124, 146, 127, 141, 179. Last year he walked (56) more times than he struck out (54) and he still hit 23 homers in just 78 games.1
Tucker is only 27, he’s a good defensive outfielder, he’s clutch (look at him walking off the 2023 Cubs…OK, so lots of guys did that) and he’ll be a free agent at the end of the season but he won’t require $765 million to sign.
So, why is he available?
The Astros find themselves in a weird spot. They have managed to remain one of baseball’s best teams for a decade (they have made the playoffs in nine of the last ten years, have won four pennants and two World Series) but they had never paid the competitive balance tax until this season. Their shady owner doesn’t want them to rebuild, but he also doesn’t want to pay the tax.
They are currently $14 million under the lowest tax level for 2025, and they have Alex Bregman to re-sign at third base, and are looking next year at huge deals for Tucker and Framber Valdez.
So they’ve basically decided not to re-sign Bregman, and to trade one of Tucker or Framber now, and maybe the other one at the deadline.
The reason they were able to keep rolling for ten straight years was they haven’t been afraid to let stars leave (George Springer, Carlos Correa, Martin Maldonado, Hector Neris, all the greats) and they kept drafting really well, mainly in the first and second rounds.
But you might remember that little kerfuffle from a few years ago when we all found out they blatantly cheated in 2017 (and beyond) by relaying pitches to hitters through a sophisticated system that involved hanging a TV in the tunnel from the dugout to the clubhouse and having somebody watch the game live on TV and bang on a garbage can when a fastball was coming. Real spy shit.
The penalties they received were pretty light. No players were punished. They didn’t gave up their 2017 World Series title and they fired their manager, AJ Hinch, and their GM Jeff Luhnow and lost first and second round draft picks in 2021 and 2022.
While the big league team kept rolling, the loss of those picks, and of Luhnow greatly diminished the quality of their drafts and their current farm system is pretty bereft of talent. So much so, that Bregman actually complained about it last season during their early season struggles.
So, if they want to cut salary now, and get something for a big-time free agent they don’t plan to re-sign, now seems like a good time to shop that guy, Kyle Tucker.
The Cubs, as we often decry, have a team made up of pretty good players, and a farm system full of pretty good prospects, and their lack of a difference maker in either area has them trapped in a cycle of 83-wins and fifth best record in the National League in the second halves (as prestigious as that might be.)
Paying Juan Soto the gross national product of Guatemala would have solved that problem. But what if they could get a somewhat comparable player for a fraction of that cost? Well, now, that’s something the Omaha Hillbillies are more than happy to entertain.
And so now we’re awash in rumors that the Cubs are the front-runners to trade for him, and names are even attached to the rumors, like Isaac Paredes and Seiya.
The Yankees are also interested as they were spurned by Soto, and the Astros want them to part with Rookie of the Year Luis Gil among others.
Then, there’s the complicating factor that the Cubs and Yankees have been discussing a Bellinger trade.
Any deal with the Astros will be (strangely) centered around Paredes. Apparently Houston was super impressed with Isaac’s .140 slugging at Wrigley Field last year. (It’s still the most hilarious stat of the season. He had one extra base hit in 86 Wrigley at bats.) Houston actually tried to trade for Paredes at the deadline. They were going to play him at first, but the Cubs offered more and got him. It should be illustrative about the state of the Houston farm system that they couldn’t top Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson.
Houston wants Paredes to succeed Bregman at third, and his dead pull power should play really well at whatever Enron Field is named these days with those gimmicky Crawford Boxes in left field.2
Paredes is a nice player, and he has three years of arbitration left, so despite the fact that he’s shaped like a Minecraft character, you can see the appeal.
And, if you’re worried about what the Cubs will do at third if they trade Paredes, well, Miles Mastrobuoni is still around, and Nick Madrigal is just a phone call away.
Seiya’s name keeps getting tossed around in these rumors, but should the Cubs really need to give up Paredes and Seiya in a trade for a player who is likely a one season rental?
Besides, Seiya’s cool. We like him. And it’s totally going to torpedo your Roki Sasaki pitch if you trade him!
But more likely, the Astros can’t really cut payroll if they trade Tucker (expected to get about $16MM in arbitration this year) but bring back Paredes (expected to get $8MM this year) and Seiya ($18MM in 2025 and 2026.)
Give them Kevin Alcantara instead. He looks cool in the uniform, and Cubs prospects always work out.
I like that Jed said, “I think we’re an appealing destination for any Japanese player,” while simultaneously harassing Seiya’s agent to ignore a no-trade clause.
You also have to wonder if the Yankees are really willing to give up a haul for a player in his walk year again after doing it last year for Soto and not being able to keep him. Tucker saw how Soto cashed in by playing out his deal and he’s going to do the same. He won’t get $765 million, but he’s at least a $300 million player, and who knows, maybe he’ll get $350 or $400 million.
I’m sure the Cubs are willing to pay that to keep him, right Tom?
So that’s the big thing here, right?
The Cubs need a star and Kyle Tucker is a star.
But the Cubs aren’t a star away from winning the pennant in 2025. So what does this actually accomplish if you trade for him, part with somebody like Seiya (who I still don’t think they’d have to include, but who the hell really knows?), win 87 games (up from 83!), lose in the first round of the playoffs and then watch Tucker sign with somebody else.
Shouldn’t you at least be willing to offer him $300MM plus if you’re going to make this trade? Even if you do, there’s no guarantee that you’ll get him, but if you aren’t willing (and does anybody think they are?) then what the fuck is the point of any of it?
Gee, it’s almost like this is an elaborate ruse to dump Bellinger and Seiya and Paredes’ money for one year of Tucker and then be rid of his money next year, too.
Wait. Would they…
Oh, shit.
Look, the Cubs should absolutely be in on a deal like this, and it should be a given that if they gave up a big package of players to get a player like this that they were already prepared to pay him what it’s going to take to keep him long term.
But as exciting as it is that the Cubs are going after Kyle Tucker, the reality is that we know these assholes too well to expect them to be doing it for the right reasons.
Tucker missed half the season last year with a bout of Todd Hollandsworth Disease. No, it’s not where your hair curls when you sit next to Dave Kaplan, it’s what happens when you foul a ball off of your shin in just the wrong spot and your nerves get trapped. Sounds awful, but still better than doing postgame with Kap.
Remember the time Moises Alou hit a homer that hit the scoreboard on the Crawford Boxes and somehow bounced up into the stands? That was cool. It would have been a lot cooler if he was playing for the Cubs against the Astros, instead of for the Astros against the Cubs at the time.